Monty Hall's paradox in betting
25 mar 2019 - 00:06:32
Monty Hall's paradox in betting
A very interesting method of testing people's mathematical abilities is the "Monty Hall Paradox". In the 70s, a television show of the same name was broadcast in America.
The presenter offered the participants to choose one of the three doors. For one of them was prize car, and for two other – nothing or goats. Further, the host himself opened one of the empty doors and offered the player to make a decision: either to leave the original choice in force, or to change the door.
Many of the players mistakenly believed that the probability that one of the doors will be the car will be 50% and did not change anything in their choice. But in fact, the probability that the other non-selected door is a car is 66.7 %. This follows from the terms of the draw, which clearly States that the presenter knows where the prize is and intentionally opens an empty door. Initially, the player has a chance to guess where the prize is 33.3%. But after opening one empty door, it increases to 50, and after changing the player's choice, the probability of guessing where the prize is still increases by 16.6 %. It turns out that with a change in the choice of the door, the player increases the probability of receiving a prize.
Only a relatively small percentage of players decide to change the original decision. It confirms the weakness in the theory of probability.
How to apply the Monty Hall paradox in betting PinUp ?
The paradox of Monty Hall explains some of the features of the behavior of players in bookmakers. First of all, we are talking about assessing the probability of different events and the size of the coefficients. Strictly speaking, the probability of a sporting event is impossible to determine. It can be determined approximately taking into account the statistics of previous meetings of the team or player. Coefficients for a particular event are made taking into account the expected probability. Simply put, if the statistics indicate that the team in 70% of previous games won, the coefficient of victory in the next match will be close to 1.4.
All bookmakers take into account their own margin and the amount of money placed by players on different positions when drawing up the coefficients. Thus, the coefficient decreases depending on these values.
If the player does not know how to estimate the margin of the office, to determine (approximately) the probability of events and to get his coefficient by comparing it with the coefficient of the office, then it will be difficult for him to count on a profit in the long-term game.
The Monty Hall paradox is applicable in betting strategies. One such strategy is to bet on an outsider. Most players bet on the favorites at low odds. It seems that even at low rates you can beat the bookmaker. But the paradox lies in the fact that betting on underdogs can win. It is enough to win once out of 4-5 such bets on the underdogs, and you will be in the black with the previous lost. The secret here is very simple. Each bet on an outsider is advantageous in terms of probability and odds. Offices underestimate quotes on the favorite and at the same time overestimate them on the outsider. It is not necessary to bet on the victory of the outsider, you can bet on x2.
For clarity, we can give a simple example from the championship of Spain. The coefficients on the victory of real Madrid and Barcelona in home games, often at the level of 1.15. This means that teams have to win 86% of the matches. In fact, even such teams do not have such an indicator. On average, in 70 -75% of matches they win. If we convert this value into coefficients, we get coefficients from 1.33 to 1.42. Therefore, we see a significant decrease in prices. Noprogress opponents odds should be 3-3,5 6-7. Yes, it is difficult psychologically, but the probability to remain in a plus following the results of long games on such coefficients is high. The main thing is to correctly calculate the amount of bets depending on the values of quotations.
Mathematical calculations show that bets on favourites at significantly underestimated coefficients are unprofitable in the long term. This axiom has long been known to experienced players.
Returning to the paradox of Monty Hall, we note that decision-making in all such cases depends on the correct assessment of the probabilities of different situations. The player must choose the solutions that will allow him to be in a better position in relation to the bookmaker or other organizer of the game. Each bet must be calculated. First of all, you should take into account the value of the coefficient, the chances of teams, taking into account the statistics of previous meetings, the size of the game Bank.
|Monty Hall's paradox in betting||247||zabava||2019-03-25 00:06|
|Re: Monty Hall's paradox in betting||17||Gugussa||2019-04-19 17:20|
|Re: Monty Hall's paradox in betting||105||soffka||2019-04-07 18:24|
|Re: Monty Hall's paradox in betting||101||soffka||2019-04-07 18:21|
|Re: Monty Hall's paradox in betting||134||Gugussa||2019-04-05 08:46|
|Re: Monty Hall's paradox in betting||167||Gugussa||2019-03-31 17:58|
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